Three major ongoing conflicts in the world — Russia-Ukraine, the Persian Gulf and Paliestine/Lebanon have driven home the enduring importance of the human resource. The lesson has been highlighted yet again that precision weapons, drones and artificial intelligence of technologically advanced militaries cannot by themselves replace trained soldiers. Behind the live TV coverage of missile strikes and drone swarms, the regular armies are grappling with shortages of manpower, declining morale, retention problems and the difficulty of sustaining prolonged operations. For India, which faces unsettled borders with both Pakistan and China, this is strategic caution that cannot be ignored as an academic debate.

Even the world’s preeminent military power, the US, is struggling. There are reports of low morale among sailors on USS Lincoln, currently stationed in the Middle East, which has been at sea continuously for over nine months. Reportedly, there are shortages of essential stores and rations on board. Earlier in 2004, there was a documented case of 18 US soldiers in Iraq who refused an order to drive a fuel convoy because they believed the mission was too dangerous, leading to an investigation. The incident was treated as a discipline issue. More recently, reports in the Iran war mention increased dissent and conscientious objection to undertaking bona fide military missions. There are increasing requests for early exits, non-renewal options, and medical separation. The US Army even missed its recruitment target by 15,000 soldiers in 2022 and continues to face a shortfall despite lowering fitness standards and offering signing bonuses up to $50,000. A RAND Corporation study attributes this to declining public trust in institutions, better civilian job markets, and a shrinking pool of medically and mentally eligible youth. If the world’s best-funded military cannot achieve its recruitment targets, we need to take notice.

The Israeli army (IDF) is facing three linked HR issues: manpower shortages, declining motivation in some service categories and rising strain on mission execution as the force is being asked to do more with less. Apparently, combat units, reservists, and career officers are all under pressure. Le Monde reported that the IDF has warned it is short of roughly 15,000 soldiers, including 8,000 combatants, and nearly 600 personnel had asked to leave early. That kind of gap forces the army to stretch existing personnel, complicate rotations, and weaken retention. Motivation problems show up most visibly in recruitment for combat units and in retention of officers. Their Chief of Staff has warned that reservists “will not hold” if the burden continues, and that the army could struggle with even routine missions in the near future. Situationally, the army is trying to balance multi-front operations, expanded security tasks, and limited manpower, which increases the risk of fatigue, slower response, and reduced readiness. Undoubtedly, this is less of a short-term recruitment constraint and more a force-sustainment problem.

The Russia–Ukraine war offers the clearest evidence. The Russian army is facing extreme HR, motivation, and mission-accomplishment problems driven by high casualties, weak retention, poor discipline, and low troop motivation. These problems are not new, but the war in Ukraine has intensified them and made them operationally visible. Add to that a punitive military culture and suppression of realistic information. Russia’s problem is not just manpower quantity but force quality, motivation, and sustainability. Even an autocracy with fewer political constraints cannot indefinitely substitute money and coercion for a sustainable personnel model. Ukraine’s experience is also revealing. Ukraine has repeatedly expanded its mobilisation base and lowered the eligible age for service. By late 2025, many frontline brigades were operating at around 30 per cent of authorised strength, with monthly recruitment of 17000–24000 failing to offset casualties, desertion and absence without leave. There is a vicious cycle of losses forcing rushed recruitment, rushed recruitment lowering average quality and cohesion, undermining combat performance.

Other examples reinforce the pattern. European countries that sharply reduced their defence forces after the Cold War are now reconsidering those decisions. Germany, Poland, Sweden and others have announced plans to expand their military strength, improve reserve systems and increase defence spending. Sweden, which had suspended conscription, revived it in response to a deteriorating security environment. Even states that once assumed major conventional wars were unlikely are rebuilding manpower structures.

The security challenges facing India are varied and complex. The defence forces have multi-front obligations, besides being heavily committed in internal security tasks. Rapidly changing technology makes systems obsolete faster. While we may get all the technology and resources to attain the desired force goals, we will need to continuously upgrade the threshold level of the soldiers and leaders to handle these systems so as to minimise the mismatch between man and machine. The 8th Pay Commission offers a rare opportunity to signal that soldiering remains an honourable, secure, and rewarding profession and not a fallback option. It would be in the fitness of things to nurture and expand the existing sustainment model of the defence forces as also incentivise high-quality youth to volunteer for service to the nation. If the Indian military fails to attract and retain quality manpower today, its effect would only be felt when it fails to acquit itself creditably in a future mission. Understandably, the Services have given their recommendations to modify the Agnipath scheme to restore institutional memory, leadership depth, and battlefield experience that only long-serving soldiers provide. The Pay Commission must support these suggestions and ensure that when that moment arrives, India’s soldiers are neither exhausted nor underpaid and undertrained, but ready.

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United States of America

The United States, which is the strongest military power in the world, recruits personnel for a four-year term during which time they are on “active” duty. Personnel serve another four years on “inactive” duty which means they can be recalled if the need arises. The usa.gov website says that after an individual has completed active duty time, he or she can either extend the contract or re-enlist if they want to continue serving. Soldiers are eligible for pension after they serve 20 years in the military. Those who opt out before are eligible for certain perks and allowances.

China

China has been downsizing its military’s human resources and adding more firepower to its strength.

The Chinese military is based on conscription which makes military service obligatory for all men aged above 18 years.

As per Chinese law, the term of service for conscripts is three years in the Army and four years in the Navy and the Air Force. For volunteers, the term of active service is eight years and no more than 12 years.

In recent years, China has been trying to reduce conscription and recruit more educated and technically proficient soldiers.

Russia

The Russian Army has historically used conscription to ensure they have reserves with military training, in case there is a need to mobilise for a major war.

Russia follows a hybrid contract and conscript model. Conscripts have a term of one year and are then put into reserve. All males aged 18 to 27 are subject to conscription for a year of military duty after an 8-month training period.

Russia has two conscription season every year – from 1 April until 15 July (spring) and between 1 October and 31 December (autumn). Men aged between 18 and 27, with no health issues or outstanding convictions could be called on to serve. However, failure to appear at the registration office is punishable by large fines and a two-year prison sentence.

Contract soldiers are given advanced training and deployed in strategic units. Despite conscription to create a reserve army, Russia has fallen short of men on the ground amid its war in Ukraine and has been reportedly hiring foreign fighters.

Israel

Conscription is a model Israel follows since its formation in 1948 to defend its territories from what was then a largely hostile neighbourhood. However, that is largely a “myth” now since Israel too has made a moved on from a conscription-based army to a leaner professional army as dynamics in the middle-east change.

The Ultra-orthodox and Arab Israelis are exempted from conscription. Arab citizens of Israel are allowed to enlist voluntarily.

Adult Israeli men must serve for 30 months and women for 24 months, unless they volunteer for a unit that requires additional service time. Afterwards they are put in a pool of reserves who can be called for service if required. 10 per cent of the conscripts are retained and given a contract for seven years. Those who serve a minimum of 12 years receive the benefits of a pension.

France

According to a SIPRI report of 2017, France has the largest armed forces in size in the European Union.

In 1996, President Jacques Chirac’s government announced the end of conscription and in 2001, conscription formally was ended.

Today, the youth of France joins the Armed Forces, called the Forces armées françaises, on a voluntary and contractual basis. The volunteer can sign a one-year contract, which can be extended to five years.

Soldiers are given training for three months and those who serve for over 19 years are eligible for state pension.

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The volatile 778-km long Line of Control (LoC), recorded over 1,547 times until 3 May from January – nearly half of the entire year’s figure in 2019 at 3,168.

The highest number of violations (411) were recorded in March 2020 when Covid-19 cases started peaking globally.

There were 3,479 CFVs and firings across the LoC and the 198-km international border (IB) in J&K in 2019, smashing all annual records since 2003.

The upward trend in CFVs has continued since the government revoked the special status of J&K on 5 August 2019 and then split the state into two union territories. Though there was a general decline in terrorist violence in the hinterland, with the snow in the mountain passes melting, there has also been a spike in infiltration attempts.

In April 2020, as many as 28 terrorists were killed in J&K – the highest since August 2019. 64 terrorists were killed in Kashmir and along the LoC in 2020 so far. In 2019, 152 terrorists were killed in J&K as against 215 in 2018, official figures stated.

Islamabad also blamed the Indian Army of 708 ceasefire violations in 2020, that it said killed two civilians and injured another 42.

Recruitment Up

The bigger cause of worry was that at least 35 local youths had joined terror groups in the first four months of this year, according to official figures of the armed forces. The local recruitment in 2019 was 119 – much less than 219 in 2018.

The Indian security forces have gone on the offensive, keeping the approaching summer in mind when infiltration attempts increase along the LoC and terrorists in the Valley become very active.

Casualties

Since 21 March, at least 33 militants and two of their associates have been killed in 15 gunfights across the Valley. Most of these encounters took place in four districts of south Kashmir – Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag, which are considered the hotbed of militancy.

Twenty security personnel lost their lives in this period. Eighteen were killed in gunfights and in attacks by militants, and two army men died on the LoC in CFVs by Pakistan.

Terror Factories in Pakistan

Terror factories in Pakistan are continuing training modules and launch pads along the border from where the final push is made to cross over are also active. The encounter in the Keran sector, on 5 April, in which five special forces soldiers died while taking down a group of infiltrating terrorists-also showed a clear Pakistan hand, with recoveries of food packets and other supplies that had evident markings.

Army chief, Gen MM Naravane also accused Pakistan, on 17 April, of backing terrorism in the region at a time when the world was united to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. “While the whole world is focused towards fighting Covid-19, Pakistan-instigated terrorists have been targeting innocent civilians in the hinterland; just three days back they targeted a retired Kashmiri soldier. Therefore, we cannot let our guard down,” Naravane said.

Intelligence Assessment

Intelligence agencies had earlier pointed to terror launch pads that had been activated in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s (POK) Dudhnial, Sharda and Athmuqam across the Keran sector on this side of the Line of Control.

The encounters which happened during March to April point towards Pakistan-backed terrorist groups focusing on north Kashmir. It was a renewed attempt by Pakistan to give Kashmir terrorism a local face. According to an assessment presented to national security planners in late April, the ISI had messaged the 100-odd foreign terrorists to lie low and let the local terrorists front the battle with security forces.

The assessment was that foreign terrorists would be consolidating logistics, expanding the overground workers facilitation network and concentrating on recruitment of Kashmiri youth. Foreign terrorists had also stepped up efforts to radicalise the youth in the Doda-Kishtwar-Ramban range to prepare them for recruitment.

The intelligence brief had also predicted a spike in terror activities and attacks from April, after the starting of Ramzan.

NSA’s Review

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval carried out a complete operational review of the security situation in Jammu & Kashmir on 9 May. The review meeting was attended by Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane, Intelligence Bureau director Arvinda Kumar, Research and Analysis Wing chief Samant Kumar Goel, Border Security Force director general SS Deswal, Central Reserve Police Force chief AK Maheshwari. Northern Army Commander Lt Gen YK Joshi, and general officer commanding of the army’s Srinagar-headquartered 15 corps Lt Gen BS Raju and the Nagrota-based 16 corps commander Lt Gen Harsha Gupta and Jammu and Kashmir police chief Dilbag Singh had also attended the high-level review at New Delhi.

The meeting noted Pakistan government’s renewed push from terror launch pads, the rise in infiltration and how Pakistan was funding newly-created outfits such as The Resistance Front or the J&K Pir Panjal Peace Forum to claim that terrorism in the Kashmir valley was indigenous and not sponsored by Pakistan.

Placing the Pakistan Air Force on high alert was assessed as an effort to further Imran Khan’s narrative that asks the international community to intervene lest there is a confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Comments

The security grid has increased surveillance in the four districts of south Kashmir, while also keeping a close watch on the LoC. The months of April and May saw a pattern of encounters going up every year, when the snow starts melting on the upper reaches of the Himalayas and militants start infiltrating from POK into Kashmir.

With modern surveillance gadgets, security forces are registering big successes in tracking and zeroing in on militants. Once a militant is caught on radar, he is tracked through electronic surveillance, and the success is remarkable. Also, human intelligence inputs help the forces to coordinate operations in the better way. Intelligence gathering has also seen a marked improvement.

A section of security officials and experts believes CFVs by Pakistan are a desperate attempt to foment unrest in India.

In the security grid, many consider these CFVs an attempt to give a cover fire to help militants crossing over to India.

Pakistan’s strategy of pushing terrorists across the border continues unabated. It’s likely that Pakistan is actually trying to take advantage of the Covid-19 outbreak and hit India with terror strikes when the latter is trying to control the epidemic. Plus, the nullification of special status of J&K by New Delhi last year did not lead to the kind of unrest that Islamabad had expected.

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