“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
– Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Cyber has redefined the perception of inter-state borders, global politics and threat intelligence in multi layered ways and the inherent characteristics of democracy may appear to complicate matters.
On one hand 5G and Quantum internet are etching the next generational national security concerns and, on the other, the rapid evolution in technologies have led to dramatic decrease in the cost of creating, processing, disseminating and searching for information leading to strengthening the muscles of soft power.
Today’s digital era, built on the blocks of inter-connectedness at every level, is already confronting an information revolution, a vital aspect of fifth generation warfare.
What better time to influence than a period of ambiguity and crisis. The same part of the brain that processes fear is also activated in ambiguous situations, driving people to seek information to address the discomfort of uncertainty. In the absence of quality information, any answers satisfy, including rumors and disinformation.
Covid-19
The first death reported from novel Coronavirus infection by the Chinese state media was on 11 January 2020. The disease caused by this virus was named Covid-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 February. WHO officials were denied access to the country to gauge the ground situation until Director-General Tedros Adhanom visited President Xi Jinping in the end of January.
Yet, unwittingly they already became a part of the misinformation bandwagon, especially after their tweet on 14 January saying:
“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”
WHO later declared Covid-19 pandemic on March11.
The analysis so far of global disinformation pattern suggest that it has been majorly around pro-China or anti-China narratives inclusive of various conspiracy theories related to the origins of this global pandemic. An internal document by European Union accused Russia of “aggressively exploiting the confusion and panic in Western countries over the coronavirus pandemic and pushing fake news in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French languages.”
India, too, is facing a threat of disinformation, internally and externally. Amongst many, this article will focus on the ones which have lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.
Internal
As per the Ministry of Health, the Tablighi Jamat Nizamuddin gathering and the subsequent travel of its members all across India increased the doubling rate of COVID cases from 7.4 days to 4.1 days. There were reports of incidents in various cities across India, where people from a religious community not only refused to observe self-quarantine but also exhibited hostility against government officials enforcing the lock-down and medical staff visiting the affected localities.
Multiple videos went viral where few miscreants from a particular community were repeatedly found flouting lockdown rules and giving statements like ‘Corona is from Quran’, ‘Corona won’t affect Muslims’ etc.
On 3 April, India Today reported that an investigation by a Delhi-based digital lab, Voyager Infosec, into more than 30,000 video clips in circulation on social media suggested a set pattern of targeted disinformation campaign aimed at the Muslim community in India. Voyager’s Director Jiten Jain said: “We have found a very interesting pattern where TikTok has been used as a primary medium to spread misinformation, citing fake and dubious research, which claims that coronavirus does not affect Muslims and that there has not been a single Muslim coronavirus patient in China and Italy.”
On 30 March, The Print carried an article ‘IS tries to provoke Muslims, says countries fighting Coronavirus are easy targets’ which stated: ‘The primary missive that is being circulated on the chat groups that IS runs on various social media platforms is a clipping of a note published in the terror network’s magazine called Sawt al-Hind (Voice of Hind). “Allah has made this disease a source of chaos amongst the nations of disbelief and their militaries and police have been deployed in their streets and alleys, thus making them an easy target,” Similar incidents were noted in other parts of the world.
New York-based Muslim Brotherhood activist Bahgat Saber called on the Egyptians to intentionally infect government officials and state employees with the Coronavirus. In a live session on his Facebook page, he exhorted “If you are a soldier, you can go into the defence ministry and shake hands with all the generals of the military and the police. The same is true with the justice system.” Saber, who has 143,195 followers on Facebook, said: “If you have contracted Coronavirus, you should take revenge!”
In a sermon (broadcast by Hamas TV) at the White Mosque in Gaza, Muslim Imam Jamil al-Mutawa called Coronavirus a “Soldier of Allah,” and celebrated the deaths of non-Muslims caused by Coronavirus, specifically praising Allah for deaths in California, China, Italy and Iran. He claimed that the streets of Israel were empty, while his mosque in Gaza was full. He went on to claim that Allah was protecting Muslims from Coronavirus, and that there were no confirmed cases of the virus in Gaza. The next day, unfortunately, two cases of Coronavirus were confirmed in Gaza.
At this point we need to ponder on the nature of the threat.
What are we facing?
Is it a threat from an entire religion or a threat from disinformation strategy of weaving narratives based on misinterpretation of religion with intent to create hostilities among communities and begin pocket conflicts across the country? The intentions can always be multilayered.
A period of infodemic is the perfect harvesting ground for any channeled and strategic influence operation.
We are not only looking at word of mouth or certain influencers on social media but at a combination of medium and message, where the medium is revamped with technologies like machine learning, bots, astro-turfing techniques and echo chambers used to create viral misinformation leading to an agenda setting effect which further shapes the public opinion.
The nature of the threat faced gets further convoluted as it is coupled with the foundational tenets of a religion.
One Sheikh Assim Al-Hakeem with 278,999 followers on Facebook explains to his followers that nothing can be contagious by itself unless by the permission of Allah.
Hadith
“Sahih Muslim, hadith 5513: “There is no adwa, no tiyarah (Evil Omens), No Hamah, No Safar, No Nawa, and no Ghoul, and no sick camel should be brought to a healthy Camel.”
Selectively interpreted as: There is no transitive disease and no sick person should be taken to one who is healthy.
Other Hadiths which were widely circulated during the pandemic were:
“It is a punishment that Allah sends to whom He wills. Allah has made it a mercy for the believers. There is not a servant who finds himself amidst a plague but he stays in that land in patience hoping (for Allah’s reward) and knowing that nothing can harm him except what Allah has written then this servant will be given a reward like that of a martyr.” [Bukhari]
‘If you hear about it (an outbreak of plague) in a land, do not go to it; but if plague breaks out in a country where you are staying, do not run away from it. [Bukhari]. This incidentally was also shared by Pakistani President in the context of stranded Pakistani students in Wuhan, China.
External
While social media and digital news are a new phenomenon, we always had traditional media organizations which are prone to manipulation and indulge in biased reporting. This falls more under the section of propaganda than disinformation. It has both official and unofficial channels like films, photographs, speeches, newspaper, books, pamphlets and periodicals, etc.
Media organizations like the BBC, The Guardian, Al Jazeera and The New York Times, with a history of gate-keeping bias against India, further worsen the scenario by sensationalizing biased stories and pushing the narrative of ‘Islamophobia’.
This is the juncture where the initiative born out of meager investments starts getting huge returns on investment by generalizing an entire community and planting seeds of communalism. Religion, faith and culture are the deepest emotions and, thus, attract disproportionate reactions, something the global propagandists bank upon. Needless to say that if this goes unchecked, we will be fighting a bigger pandemic for years to come.
