Iran’s Press TV, a media channel associated with hardline elements, has designated the joint UK-US facility on Diego Garcia as a prospective target for reprisal should the US or Israel engage in an attack on Iran. The article positions Diego Garcia among other significant US military locations in the region, such as Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE), NSA Bahrain, Dimona Radar Facility (Israel), Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Jordan), Camp Arifjan (Kuwait), and Ain al-Assad Airbase (Iraq). It additionally provides satellite photos of each site.
The paper underscores the strategic significance of Diego Garcia, emphasizing its deep-water piers, anchorages, and port facilities, along with the deployment of B-1 Lancer, B-2 Spirit, and B-52 Stratofortress bombers. It asserts that the base lies within the 4,000 km range of Iran’s Khorramshahr ballistic missiles and Shahed-136B kamikaze drones. Moreover, it indicates that Iran may initiate assaults not alone from its territory but also from its naval drone carriers, Shahid Mahdavi (C110-3) and Shahid Bagheri (C110-4), capable of operating in the Indian Ocean.
Currently, discussions over the future of Diego Garcia are stalled. The United Kingdom is anticipating an official answer from the United States over the temporary agreement established with Mauritius. Former President Trump indicated provisional approval for the agreement, acknowledging that it had not undergone comprehensive evaluation, so allowing for possible problems. In the UK, political dissent is rising due to apprehensions regarding the financial implications-presumably derived from the defense budget-and the apparent absence of reciprocity from the US. The unconsulted transfer of sovereignty over the Chagosian inhabitants to Mauritius has incited additional debate.
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Discrepancies in reports from the UK, US, and Mauritius regarding the negotiations suggest a probable temporary cessation. Reports indicate that Washington is contemplating a direct claim for sovereignty over Diego Garcia, due to its significant military importance and potential as a luxury resort locale.
A fresh layer of apprehension has arisen around China’s Maritime Militia operating close proximity to Diego Garcia. Intelligence indicates that these vessels may be aiding Iran by supplying target correction data and possibly functioning as a launch platform for attacks against the base. This development introduces a substantial geopolitical aspect to the situation, indicating increased collaboration between China and Iran in opposing US military deployment in the region.
Significance of Diego Garcia
The joint UK-US station on Diego Garcia is a crucial strategic and tactical asset, offering both nations a forward operating location to project military might, maintain maritime security, and address new threats in the Indo-Pacific area.
1. Geographic Position and Accessibility. Diego Garcia is strategically positioned in the central Indian Ocean, functioning as a vital staging area for military operations in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa.
The base facilitates the security of principal shipping lanes linking Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, essential for global commerce.
2. Global force Projection. The base facilitates the projection of military force by both the US and UK, allowing for swift responses to regional crises. It has been utilized in numerous military operations, such as Desert Storm, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom, showcasing its effectiveness in facilitating long-range military battles.
3. Counterbalancing China. Diego Garcia is pivotal in mitigating China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean, especially with its Belt and Road Initiative.
Strategic Importance
• Military Infrastructure. Airfield and navy Facilities: The facility features a fully equipped airfield suitable for heavy aircraft such as B-52s and B-1s, in addition to a deep draft wharf for navy vessels.
• Logistics Hub. It functions as a logistics center for fuel, maintenance, and supplies, facilitating naval operations throughout the region.
• Prepositioned Equipment. The facility maintains substantial quantities of military assets, facilitating swift deployment of forces in reaction to emergencies.
• Special Operations. It assists special operations forces and can enable clandestine missions in the area.
• Intelligence and Surveillance. Diego Garcia operates a telecommunications facility that monitors satellites and transmits communications, thereby augmenting situational awareness in the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s Capabilities
Iran’s potential to execute long-range ballistic missile strikes on Diego Garcia is primarily theoretical and contingent upon the range of its most sophisticated missile weapons. This is a summary of Iran’s pertinent missile capabilities:
1.Khorramshahr Missile. The Khorramshahr missile is among Iran’s longest-range ballistic missiles, boasting a reported range of up to 2,000 km. Nevertheless, several reports indicate that recent iterations may possess an augmented range, potentially attaining or beyond 4,000 km, thereby placing Diego Garcia within operational reach. Although the precise specifications of the latest Khorramshahr variants remain undisclosed, they are regarded as components of Iran’s intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) inventory.
2.Shahab-3 and Ghadr Missiles. The Shahab-3 possesses a range of around 900 km, but its upgraded variant, the Ghadr, expands this range to roughly 1,600 km. These missiles lack the capability to directly strike Diego Garcia. These missiles are crucial for regional deterrence but do not represent a direct danger to Diego Garcia.
3.Shahed-136B Kamikaze Drones: Iran owns the Shahed-136B kamikaze drone, with an estimated range of up to 4,000 kilometers. Although not classified as ballistic missiles, these drones may be utilized in a long-range offensive operation against Diego Garcia.
4.Naval Launch Platforms: Iran has exhibited the ability to deploy missiles and drones from naval vessels, which may potentially facilitate attacks from closer proximity to Diego Garcia.
Conclusion
Whereas Iran lacks a verified ballistic missile capability to directly target Diego Garcia, the possibility of future advancements or the deployment of drones and naval assets could present a hypothetical threat. Nonetheless, the principal issue remains conjectural, grounded in present capabilities and the strategic framework of Iranian military plans.
