An IMR Special Report
The Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing the development of a nuclear weapon. Iran refutes allegations of pursuing a nuclear weapon; nonetheless, the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear regulatory body, cautioned on 15 March 2025, as the global community anticipated Tehran’s reply to Donald Trump’s proposition of either nuclear negotiations or potential airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.
The IAEA has previously contended that there is no plausible civilian application for uranium enriched to 60%, which is a mere increment from weapons-grade 90% enriched fissile material.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that Iran had a highly ambitious and comprehensive nuclear program, wherein it is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels.
Grossi stated that Iran’s nuclear problem is currently relatively contained. Nevertheless, he cautioned that it is perilously near the nuclear threshold, indicating the possibility of acquiring atomic weapons.
US President Donald Trump dispatched a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations regarding its nuclear program, while cautioning that the alternative may be military intervention.
Khamenei stated on 12 March that Trump’s previous pullout from the 2015 nuclear agreement renders all diplomatic engagement with him futile and pledged severe punishment against any assault by the United States or its supporters.
Iran’s nuclear aspirations have consistently raised international apprehension, especially concerning its capability to manufacture nuclear weapons. Although Iran has consistently asserted that its nuclear program serves peaceful objectives, including energy generation and medicinal uses, other nations, especially the United States and its allies, have voiced skepticism. The proximity of Iran to acquiring nuclear weapons is contingent upon various circumstances, including its technological capabilities, the political environment, and foreign diplomatic initiatives.
A Historical Overview of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Iran’s nuclear program originated in the 1950s, initiated with support from the United States through the Atoms for Peace initiative. Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran’s nuclear aspirations were temporarily suspended; nevertheless, they recommenced in the mid-1980s, concentrating on uranium enrichment. By the early 2000s, sources indicated that Iran was advancing its nuclear program, including the development of technology applicable to weapons manufacturing. These findings raised apprehensions regarding Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons.
The international world, notably via the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has enacted sanctions and urged Iran to cease its nuclear program. The United States, specifically, advocated for diplomatic initiatives to restrict Iran’s nuclear endeavors via the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, which was executed in 2015.
Advancements in Technology and Uranium Enrichment. Iran’s nuclear program predominantly focuses on uranium enrichment, an essential process for generating the fissile material necessary for nuclear weaponry. Iran manages multiple uranium enrichment facilities, notably the Natanz and Fordow sites, where uranium is enriched to different degrees. According to the provisions of the 2015 JCPOA, Iran consented to restrict its enrichment capabilities, diminishing both the stockpile of enriched uranium and the quantity of operational centrifuges. International sanctions against Iran were lifted in return.
In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally exited the JCPOA, prompting Iran to reduce its obligations under the accord. Since that time, Iran has progressively reinstated uranium enrichment, incorporating the advancement of more sophisticated centrifuges that enhance the speed of uranium enrichment. Currently, Iran has allegedly enriched uranium to around 60%, significantly exceeding the 3.67% threshold established by the JCPOA. The 90% enrichment level is classified as weapons-grade; nevertheless, Iran asserts that its program is intended for peaceful purposes.
The Potential for Weaponization. Although Iran has advanced its enrichment capabilities considerably, there remains no conclusive proof that it is actively pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. Experts have identified essential stages in Iran’s weaponization process, which include the design of a nuclear warhead and the development of delivery mechanisms, such as ballistic missiles or other long-range systems. Iran has progressed in missile technology; nonetheless, the development of a functional nuclear warhead necessitates additional proficiency in nuclear engineering and weapon design.
ALSO READ: INDIA-CHINA: India Needs a Multi-Pronged Strategy
The IAEA has monitored Iran’s nuclear program and conducted inspections of its facilities. The IAEA has determined that Iran is enriching uranium beyond the JCPOA restrictions, however it has not uncovered definitive evidence of Iran diverting its nuclear program towards weaponization. The IAEA’s reports frequently emphasize apprehensions regarding Iran’s insufficient transparency and cooperation in specific domains, particularly concerning the historical potential military dimensions (PMD) of its nuclear endeavors prior to 2003.
Political and Diplomatic Considerations. The advancement of Iran’s nuclear weapons capability is also affected by political and diplomatic considerations. The Iranian leadership has not openly stated a goal to develop nuclear weapons; however, its regional competition with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel has prompted speculation that nuclear weapons would function as a deterrent. Israel perceives Iran’s nuclear aspirations as an imminent threat to its security and has openly discussed the potential for military intervention to thwart Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
The resumption of negotiations, particularly under the Biden administration, has generated optimism for a revitalized nuclear accord that may limit Iran’s nuclear advancements. Negotiations have repeatedly stalled, and there is an increasing urgency among Western nations to prevent Iran from attaining the key threshold for producing a nuclear weapon within months.
Nuclear Armament Installations
Numerous essential nuclear facilities significantly contribute to Iran’s nuclear aspirations, with some being vital for the prospective development of nuclear weapons. The following are the principal nuclear facilities and their respective locations.
Natanz Nuclear Installation. The Natanz plant, situated in central Iran, is a pivotal site in the nation’s nuclear program. Located in a secluded region of Isfahan province, Natanz is Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility. The complex comprises two primary components: the above-ground facility and the subterranean facility, which is extensively buried to safeguard it from possible aerial assaults. Natanz has consistently hosted uranium enrichment operations, with Iran progressively augmenting its enrichment capability, notably through the advancement of sophisticated centrifuges such as the IR-2m and IR-6 types, which can enrich uranium at significantly higher rates than their predecessors.
The facility’s principal function has been to enrich uranium to low levels for civilian use; but, in recent years, Iran has beyond the thresholds established by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has watched Iran’s activities in Natanz, which continues to be a pivotal location in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If Iran were to augment its enrichment activities, Natanz might play a pivotal role in generating uranium enriched to weapons-grade levels, rendering it a crucial location in the prospective creation of nuclear armaments.
Fordow Nuclear Installation. The Fordow facility is a notable nuclear complex situated near the city of Qom in northern Iran. Fordow was initially constructed as a uranium enrichment facility, with Iran asserting that it would be utilized to generate low-enriched uranium for civilian reactors. Nonetheless, its subterranean location has elicited apprehensions regarding its military capabilities. Iran disclosed the existence of Fordow in 2009, after to its construction having commenced several years prior.
The facility contains centrifuges akin to those at Natanz and has been utilized to generate both low-enriched uranium and, in certain instances, uranium enriched to elevated levels. In recent years, Iran has recommenced enrichment operations at Fordow, contravening the JCPOA. Due to its subterranean position and Iran’s progress in enrichment technologies, Fordow is pivotal in Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium to levels approaching those required for nuclear armaments.
Arak Heavy Water Reactor. The Arak heavy water reactor, situated in Arak, central Iran, is a significant component of Iran’s nuclear program. The reactor was constructed to generate plutonium, a substitute fissile substance for nuclear armaments. The Arak facility is a heavy water reactor that utilizes deuterium oxide as both a coolant and moderator. Heavy water reactors are very proficient in generating plutonium-239, which is applicable in nuclear armaments.
According to the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), Iran consented to redesign and reconstruct the Arak reactor to inhibit the production of weapons-grade plutonium. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has recommenced specific operations at the Arak plant. Operating the reactor in its original configuration might substantially enhance Iran’s capacity to generate plutonium, which, similar to uranium, can be utilized for the fabrication of nuclear bombs.
Parchin Military Facility. Parchin, situated in eastern Tehran, is a military installation associated with prospective nuclear weapons development. Parchin, although not a nuclear reactor or enrichment facility, is suspected of engaging in the testing of explosives and other components essential for nuclear weapons. The IAEA has expressed apprehensions regarding the facility’s potential engagement in weaponization efforts, notwithstanding Iran’s denial of such actions. Satellite images and intelligence assessments indicate that Parchin has been utilized for activities aligned with the production of nuclear warheads.
Iran’s hesitance to grant the IAEA comprehensive access to the site has exacerbated doubts regarding Parchin’s involvement in its nuclear weapons program. Despite Iran’s assertion that the facility serves conventional military functions, its engagement in possible weaponization efforts renders it a crucial site for comprehending the wider context of Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
Bushehr Nuclear Power Facility. The Bushehr facility is Iran’s inaugural operating nuclear power reactor, situated on the southern coastline of Iran adjacent to the Persian Gulf. The facility, constructed with Russian support, has mostly concentrated on energy generation. Although its intent is civilian, the technology and expertise acquired from managing a nuclear power station could assist Iran in advancing its nuclear capabilities. The management of nuclear fuel and reactor technology at Bushehr, while not directly associated with weaponization, equips Iran with the infrastructure and expertise that might be utilized for future weapons development.
Final Assessment
Although Iran has achieved significant advancements in its nuclear program, it has not yet reached the capability to deploy a nuclear weapon. The nation has established the technological infrastructure for uranium enrichment, and its missile programs are sophisticated; but, the final stages of weaponization-namely warhead development and delivery systems-pose considerable challenges.
