Pakistan has descended into lawlessness, resulting in the proliferation of several terrorist organizations. Does the government or military of Pakistan lack the power and authority to regulate non-state actors within its territory? Is Pakistan losing its significance even inside the Islamic World? Is Pakistan a central nexus for global terrorism, and do various organizations worldwide find sanctuary within its borders? Has Pakistan’s deteriorating economy rendered it more anarchic than Afghanistan? Is Pakistan on the brink of balkanization, with Azad Jammu and Kashmir, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and Balochistan poised for secession?
Pakistan is confronting a severe existential crisis while simultaneously grappling with significant problems across all domains: economic, environmental, political, and military. The threat of balkanization is indeed tangible. It currently resembles an economic colony of China, exacerbated by religious extremism. The feudal structure of the 19th century has not entirely dissipated, and administrative (non-democratic) institutions, with the exception of the military, have not progressed. The judiciary and parliament in Pakistan remain mere extensions of the military and are still in a rudimentary phase. The likelihood of organizations such as ‘Mukti Vahini’ emerging in POK is substantial in the future, owing to inadequate infrastructure development and a terrible human rights record in the region. Pakistan may fragment independently and more rapidly than anticipated, but it may unjustly attribute responsibility to India for this outcome.
Pakistan is expected to adopt a victim narrative and solicit further funds from China for border protection and internal security. It may also request additional drones and radars from China and Turkey, as well as seek more F-16s from the United States to enhance border security and internal safety.
Ultimately, Pakistan and its border regions serve as a nexus for global terrorism, and the nation is incapable of regulating these non-state actors that operate with impunity within its borders. The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has become tense in recent months. All these reasons indicate a scenario in which the state of Pakistan appears to be disintegrating under its own burdens.
The hypothetical possibility of Pakistan undergoing balkanization-a process of disintegration into smaller, more autonomous or independent entities-has been a subject of speculative discourse for numerous years. This problem is difficult and disputed, with various potential outcomes and implications arising from the scenario. A balkanized Pakistan would undoubtedly result in political, social, and economic turmoil, accompanied by considerable regional and worldwide consequences.
Formation of New States
The most immediate effect of Pakistan’s disintegration would be the formation of new, independent or semi-autonomous entities. Pakistan is a heterogeneous nation including numerous ethnic, cultural, and linguistic groups, many of which have historically articulated discontent with the central government’s hegemony.
Balochistan. The Baloch people have persistently pursued independence or enhanced autonomy owing to economic marginalization, insufficient political representation, and the exploitation of their resources. If Pakistan were to disintegrate, Balochistan may proclaim independence or even amalgamate with Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, due to the ethnic connections over the border. This is expected to encounter opposition from both Pakistan and Iran, potentially resulting in confrontation over territorial limits.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and the Pashtun region. The Pashtun populace of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, alongside Pashtun-dominant regions in Afghanistan, may pursue more autonomy or complete independence. Historically, Pashtun nationalism parties have advocated for the establishment of a consolidated Pashtun state, also known as Pashtunistan, encompassing regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This scenario might exacerbate tensions with Afghanistan and potentially incite territorial disputes.
Punjab. Punjab is the epicenter of Pakistan’s political and economic influence, housing the majority of the nation’s populace. Should Pakistan disintegrate, Punjab could potentially become the most influential and economically preeminent region. It may opt to maintain independence or possibly establish a confederation with other regions, although it would probably encounter significant internal discourse on its future trajectory.
Sindh. Sindh has historically possessed a strong ethnic identity, especially among its Sindhi populace. Karachi, a prominent port city, is ethnically heterogeneous, and discord among the Sindhi, Urdu-speaking, and Pashtun communities has been a catalyst for war. Should Pakistan disintegrate, Sindh may endeavor to establish its own autonomy or independence, particularly if there are significant demands for economic equity and political representation for the Sindhi populace.
Economic Deterioration and Turbulence
The disintegration of Pakistan would unequivocally result in significant economic turmoil. Pakistan’s economy is currently under considerable strain, and its vulnerable infrastructure may be incapable of enduring the repercussions of a dissolution. Numerous obstacles would arise:
Disjointed economy. The economy of Pakistan is intricately interwoven, with resources and industry distributed among its provinces. The partition would incite conflicts around natural resources, including water from the Indus River, hydrocarbon reserves in Balochistan, and the economic significance of major centers such as Karachi. Every newly established state would endeavor to formulate its own economic framework and oversee the allocation of national debts and assets.
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Refugee crisis. The likelihood of violence, economic deterioration, and resource depletion would result in widespread displacement both domestically and internationally. Refugees escaping conflict zones will exacerbate pressures on neighboring nations such as India, Afghanistan, and Iran, potentially engendering wider regional instability.
Global economic ramifications. The disintegration of Pakistan would have global economic repercussions, especially in South Asia, due to Pakistan’s significant involvement in trade networks connecting China, Central Asia, and the Middle East. The disruption of vital trade routes and the fragmentation of economic systems would significantly impede trade and investment in the region.
Increase in Sectarian and Ethnic Conflicts
A fragmented Pakistan may experience an escalation in ethnic and sectarian violence, especially as marginalized ethnic groups endeavor to assert their autonomy. Baloch nationalists, Pashtuns, Sindhis, and Punjabis will undoubtedly face rivalry for resources and political authority.
Specifically, sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia factions may escalate in the absence of centralized authority. Pakistan possesses a protracted history of sectarian conflict, and with the country’s fragmentation, diverse factions may intensify their endeavors to establish religious and political supremacy. This may lead to extensive violence and instability, potentially affecting adjacent nations.
Geopolitical Consequences
The disintegration of Pakistan would yield significant geopolitical ramifications. Adjacent nations, notably India, Afghanistan, and Iran, would own considerable interests in the ramifications of such a situation.
India. The disintegration of Pakistan would probably be perceived as a triumph for India, which has historically been apprehensive of Pakistan’s strategic and military aspirations. Nonetheless, it would also provide new issues, especially regarding border security. India is likely to encounter increased tensions along its western border, particularly if Pashtun nationalists in KPK pursue unification with Afghanistan. Furthermore, India would be apprehensive of the proliferation of numerous nuclear-capable nations in South Asia, particularly if Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile becomes disordered or precarious.
Afghanistan. The disintegration of Pakistan may result in the establishment of a Pashtunistan state, which might either form an alliance with Afghanistan or maintain independence. This might foster a more cohesive Pashtun state, yet also provoke border conflicts with Afghanistan and induce regional instability. Afghanistan may potentially perceive an opportunity to assert influence over regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
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China. The disintegration of Pakistan would modify the equilibrium of Chinese influence in the region, especially with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which traverses Balochistan. If Balochistan attains independence or joins Iran, China may encounter considerable challenges in preserving its economic and strategic interests in the region. Furthermore, the disintegration of Pakistan may alter the power dynamics in Central Asia and impact China’s extensive Belt and Road Initiative.
Escalated Military Tension and Regional Armament Competition
The disintegration of Pakistan would probably result in the escalation of armaments, especially nuclear weapons. The potential fragmentation of Pakistan’s military establishment poses a risk of its nuclear weapons being acquired by forces lacking the requisite competence for responsible management. This may provoke an arms race in the region, especially if India, Afghanistan, or China perceives a necessity to augment their nuclear capabilities to safeguard security amid a fragmented and unstable South Asia.
Final Assessment
The disintegration of Pakistan will result in an extremely unstable and uncertain scenario in South Asia. The disintegration will certainly precipitate considerable economic, political, and social turmoil, leading to the formation of numerous new states, heightened sectarian and ethnic conflict, and global instability. The repercussions would extend beyond Pakistan to neighboring nations and the international community, given the region’s strategic significance and nuclear capabilities, becoming it a focal point of global security concerns.
