Russian Invasion is a Test of Indian Diplomacy
Maj Gen Deepak K Mehta
India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War could be viewed as a tilt towards Russia. To be coveted for support by both sides provided both opportunities and challenges, and could help shape India’s foreign policy postures to deal with the geopolitical turbulence that lies ahead.
The Russia-Ukraine clash made India walk a fine balance between a values-based foreign policy and stark geopolitical compulsions.
India cannot evade the economic impact of rise in prices of oil and several other commodities including agricultural products like refined oil.
US, Russia and China have wooed India to toe their line due to its global geopolitical standing, derived from its geography, size, population, economic and nuclear weapons.
India’s Initial Posture
Amid the Russian attack on Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed for an “immediate cessation of violence” in his phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 Feb 2022 and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue. He expressed his “long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue”, the PMO said.
This was a fine balancing act as it called for “immediate cessation of violence” – something the Western bloc would appreciate.
Earlier, India expressed “regret” – an upgrade from expressing “concern”, but stopped short of condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
One of India’s initial concerns was the Indian community in Ukraine, mostly medical students. Most were helped to leave through land borders in neighbouring countries — Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovak Republic – and many were air-lifted back to India. India also sent humanitarian aid and medical supplies to war-hit Ukraine in the evacuation flights.
External Affairs minister S Jaishankar got calls from the EU’s High Representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. The ambassadors of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) and Ukraine met in Delhi to express solidarity on what they called “Russia’s unjustifiable military aggression”.
UNSC Discussion
India sat on the fence and abstained on two UN Security Council resolutions. India’s abstention gave it the option of reaching out to both sides to find a middle ground as well as ensure the safety of its citizens in Ukraine.
India’s actions and statement during the discussion on United Nations Security Council Resolution, which sought to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, indicate that New Delhi saw it as an issue between NATO and Russia that should be resolved through dialogue. It abstained from the vote saying, “It is a matter of regret that diplomacy was given up. For these reasons, India has chosen to abstain from the resolution.”
There was Western criticism over India’s underwhelming and insufficient response at the UN Security Council to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. response was described as ‘careful, avoid angering Putin at all costs’ which expose its unpreparedness to step up to major power responsibilities or be a dependable partner.
But the fine print of India’s explanation for not voting and PM Modi’s conversation with Vladimir Putin show that India did convey the need for Moscow to step back.
Both at the UNSC and during the Modi-Putin phone call, New Delhi underlined the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations and immediate cessation of violence and hostilities. At the same time, India’s abstention showed its unwillingness to jump on the US bandwagon for a ‘strong collective response’ to the Russian invasion after witnessing the aftermath of previous such responses in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
India’s statement at the UN Security Council, made in an emergency meeting, said, “The Security Council had met two days ago and discussed the situation. We had called for urgent de-escalation of tensions and emphasized on sustained and focused diplomacy to address all issues concerning the situation.”
At the meeting, India’s Permanent Representative at the UN T S Tirumurti said, “However, we note with regret, that the calls of the international community to give time to the recent initiatives undertaken by parties to diffuse tensions were not heeded to.
“The situation is in danger of spiralling into a major crisis. We express our deep concern over the developments, which if not handled carefully, may well undermine the peace and security of the region.” He called for “immediate de-escalation and refraining from any further key to India’s engagements in Afghanistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held informal summits with only leaders of two countries — Putin and China’s Xi.
Growing Russia-China Proximity
India is worried about the Russia-China axis too. India is conscious that the hostility between the West and Russia is likely to push Moscow further in the direction of Beijing.
One of the key players which has been cautious in its response to the Ukraine crisis is China which is the real cause of worry for India. China seems to be gaining the most out of the situation.
Russia has carefully scripted an alternative path out, by increasingly courting China bilaterally and also at global forums. China and Russia are both permanent members of the United Nations security council and between them have a bilateral trade relationship of nearly $150 billion. Russia has carefully cultivated China (or vice versa) to develop an alternative “Russian” standard of international payment and settlement system.
What is worrying from India perspective is, the growing dependency of Russia on China for its survival which could turn the tables for India. India has had several decades of warm relationship with Russia, unhampered by regime changes. India’s dependence on Russian military equipment is a well-known fact. Growing proximity between Russia and China is a potential threat for future.
Russia has been calibrated in its statements on issues China is sensitive to, such as Huawei’s 5G rollout, Hong Kong and Covid-19. Beijing and Moscow, however, do not always see eye to eye with each other. China does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and Moscow, formally speaking, takes a neutral stance on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
Is it not possible that China can use Russia-like pluck and revised history to lay claim to large parts of Nepal and march up to the Terai region? What if Russia backs China’s aggression in the future?
Comments
There are no permanent friends nor enemies; only permanent interests. Building cooperative relationships based on common interests will continue to provide the sinews of crafting India’s strategy.
With pressure piling from the western bloc, led by the US, this is a test for New Delhi to make a strategic choice — principles and values on one side, and pragmatism and interests on the other side.
India’s dependence on Russia and the US for strengthening its military preparations can be expected to be leveraged by both Moscow and Washington to pressurise New Delhi in terms of alignments on issues contested between them.
Strengthening India’s military power is an imperative and not a choice that can depend on foreign policy initiatives or depend on the goodwill of others.
The global chessboard of geopolitics is a mix of issue-based cross-purposes and theatre-specific agendas that often generate asymmetric perceptions. After dragging its feet, fence-sitting on Ukraine, India needs a gameplan.
Modi will have to use all his political and diplomatic skills and continuously navigate between competing US and Russian demands to ensure that India’s interests are protected.
