Since the assassination of Iranian Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani on 3 January 2020, there has been much speculation about US-Iran conflict escalating into a wider conflict, about its nature- nuclear or conventional, its theatres and the contesting parties. The situation remains unpredictable due to the complex geopolitical equations in West Asia. This complexity stems out of various factors that include shifting allegiance, different actors- more non-state actors than state actors and aimless intervention of the US leading to irrevocable chaos in the region.
It is a known fact that the prime conflict in West Asia is the Cold War between Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Arab states on one side and Shiite Iran on the other. This is mainly manifested through proxy wars in the region. The theatres where this Cold War plays out are Yemen and Syria. Here Iran receives strong support from Russia and China.
Shifting Allegiance
Although Iraq had been the focal point of the power struggle in West Asia, the US is a significant player here. Since the US toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, it has been a major security partner for Iraq. About 5,000 US troops are currently deployed in Iraq.
On the other hand, Iran is one of the most powerful neighbours of Iraq and its political elite share deep historical ties with the Iranian regime. Further, Iraqi Shia militia takes its orders from Tehran and not Baghdad. Hence, Iraq is unlikely to ignore Iran. Further, Iraq had expressed its dissent over US’s unilateral use of air power targeting Iraqi militias on its soil. Hence, post-Suleimani’s assassination, Iraq firmly backs Iran.
Turkish forces are deployed in Syria, which is a key Iranian ally and in due course can come in support of Iran. Although Turkey is a NATO member country, it’s stand could be unpredictable. Turkey’s President Erdogan is Russia’s close friend as evident from its import of S-400 ballistic missile defence system. It is close to the Iranians, too.
Iran’s Allies – Different Actors
Late Gen Suleimani has been credited to have been the main architect of Iran’s foreign operations. Since the time he took over the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in 1998, he extended operations of the unit by deepening Iran’s links with its proxy groups such as Hezbollah and the Badr Organisationand built new militias such as the Shia Popular Mobilisation Units and Houthis. Some of them are mentioned below.
Iraqi Militia. Iran has financed and trained Iraqi Shia militia numbering more than 140,000 fighters. The Popular Mobalisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of pro-Iran Iraq militias, was established in 2014 under the leadership of GenSuleimani with an objective to retain Assad’s regime and defeat the Islamic State (IS) in Syria. The PMF is constituted by organizations such as Kataib Hezbollah, Badr Orgnisation and Karaib al-Imam Ali. It is through them that Iran could exercise substantial influence on Iraq’s politics.
The PMF played asignificant role in defeating IS fighting alongside the Iraqi Army, while the US provided air cover. However, once the IS was defeated and tension between US and Iran started to rise with US withdrawing from the nuclear deal, the PMF started attacking US forces in Iraq. With US’s retaliatory attacks, the situation became chaotic.
Lebonon’s Hezbollah. IRGC founded the Hezbollah group during Lebanon’s civil war in the 1980s. It is known to be among the most efficient and effective armed groups in the region extending Iran’s influence to Israel. They are also effectively fighting in Syria.
Syria. Apart from Hezbollah, other armed groups such as Iraqi Nujaba and Fatemiyoun group have beenstrong allies of Iran and have been actively fighting in Syria.
Gaza Militia. Iran has long supported Palestinian militant groups, including Gaza’s Hamas rulers and the smaller Islamic Jihad group.
Yemen’s Houthis. They are Yemen’s Shia rebels. They captured the capital with support from Iran. They are currently fighting the Yemeni government, which is backed by a Saudi-led coalition.
Other than the above mentioned proxies, Iran receives strong support from both Russia and China. The three countries participated in a trilateral military exercise in December 2019.
US’s Intervention
It was not action by the Iranian military but by Iranian proxies in Iraq that put in motion the chain of events leading to the killing of Suleimani. It was Kataib Hezbollah, responsible for the rocket attacks on Iraqi bases in December 2019, that killed an American contractor and injured several soldiers. Therefore, in a sense, the US has already shown that it can be provoked by Iranian proxies. In this way, US has put itself and its allies, such as Israel, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, in a profoundly dangerous strategic position. In an attempt to deter Iran with maximalist threats, US has given independent armed militias the power to escalate conflict between two sovereign nations with a possibility of war involving other sovereign states of the region.
Gen Suleimani was not an impossible target for the previous US presidents but they chose not to take that route as the risk outweighed the benefits. US president Donald Trumps’s decision to attack Suleimani could result in a tsunamic effect not just for the US or the region but for the entire world. Although US officials have defended their attack saying that Iran’s allies in different parts of the region under the leadership of Suleimani were planning more attacks on US installations in the region and the assassination was to deter them. However, the fact remains that Iran is adamant on a complete end to the US presence in the region.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in January, after Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile strikes on US installations, “What is important is that America’s corrupt presence must come to an end in this region.” Hence, more attacks on US troops and installations can be expected.
Further, extending Trump’s maximum economic pressure, the US State Department issued a statement on 23 January 2020 imposing further sanctions on a Chinese, a UAE and two Hong Kong-based companies and two individuals for trading with the National Iran Oil Company (NIOC). The US stated that the sanctions were imposed on account of the fact that these entities had collectively transferred millions to NIOC, which was instrumental in financing Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force and other terrorists groups and militias that were active in the region.
Impact on India
India is concerned about the safety of the 10 million strong diaspora in West Asia,which sends at least $40 billion in remittances annually.Remittancesfrom this regionaccount for much of India’s foreign exchange earnings. Increased tensions can trigger their return to India.
lf a war between Iran and the US actually breaks out, India will be asked by the US to permit the American military to operate out of Indian bases along the border with Pakistan under the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) between the two countries.
In the recent India-US summit involving the foreign and defence ministers of the two countries, the US side had expressed eagerness to activate LEMOA. With Asian Islamic countries, including Pakistan, unwilling to be a part of any America-led military action in the region, the US would have been constrained to seek Indian cooperation. Such collaboration with the US might jeopardize India’s relations with other West Asian states like Iran and it’s allies.
India and Iran share deep historical, political, economic and strategic ties with each other. Both the states shared a 959 km border till 1947.Also, Persian used to be the court language in Delhi until Urdu edged it out.
India will not want Chabahar Port, a new transit route between India, Iran and Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan to be compromised.
Iran had emerged as the single largest importer of Indian tea, taking over 50 million kgs in 2019, which is about 10% of India’s total tea exports.
Because of US sanctions on Iranian oil, India had had to import oil from the US and Saudi Arabia at a higher cost. Iran wanted to sell more than 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) to India and had offered near free shipping and an extended credit period. However, the Indian leadershipwithdrew under threat of US sanctions.
Except for urging caution, India may not have any diplomatic space to influence the situation in the region. India’s key crude oil suppliers include Iraq, Saudi, UAE and Kuwait. A war, if it happens, could disrupt India’s oil supply lines which could be disastrous for India since it imports 84% of its oil requirements from the region.
