Ayman al-Zawahiri, Leader of al-Qaeda, Killed
The United States killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a strike in Afghanistan on 31 July, President Joe Biden announced, calling it a moment of justice for families of 2,977 people killed in September 11, 2001 terror attack. Biden said Zawahiri had been the mastermind behind or played a key role in attacks on the USS Cole and US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
It was the biggest blow to the militant group since its founder Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011. Zawahiri, an Egyptian surgeon who had a $25 million bounty on his head, helped coordinate the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people.
Zawahiri died after a US drone strike in the Afghan capital Kabul. US intelligence determined with “high confidence” through multiple intelligence streams that the man killed was Zawahiri. He was killed on the balcony of a “safe house” in Kabul that he shared with other members of his family. No other casualties occurred.
There were rumors of Zawahiri’s death several times in recent years, and he was long reported to have been in poor health.
In a statement, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that a strike took place and strongly condemned it, calling it a violation of “international principles.”
His death raises questions about whether Zawahiri received sanctuary from the Taliban following their takeover of Kabul in August 2021. US officials said that senior Taliban officials were aware of his presence in the city and said the United States expected the Taliban to abide by an agreement not to allow al Qaeda fighters to re-establish themselves in the country.
The drone attack is the first known US strike inside Afghanistan since US troops and diplomats left the country in August 2021. The move may bolster the credibility of Washington’s assurances that the United States can still address threats from Afghanistan without a military presence in the country.
Zawahiri succeeded bin Laden as al Qaeda leader after years as its main organiser and strategist, but his lack of charisma and competition from rival militants Islamic State hobbled his ability to inspire spectacular attacks on the West.
Until the US announcement, Zawahiri had been rumoured variously to be in Pakistan’s tribal area or inside Afghanistan.
The senior US official said finding Zawahiri was the result of persistent counterterrorism work. The United States identified this year that Zawahiri’s wife, daughter and her children had relocated to a safe house in Kabul, then identified that Zawahiri was there as well.
With other senior al Qaeda members, Zawahiri is believed to have plotted the October 12, 2000, attack on the USS Cole naval vessel in Yemen which killed 17 US sailors and injured more than 30 others, the Rewards for Justice website said.
He was indicted in the United States for his role in the August 7, 1998, bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 224 people and wounded more than 5,000 others.
Both bin Laden and Zawahiri eluded capture when US-led forces toppled Afghanistan’s Taliban government in late 2001 following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.
Operational Details
Speculation is rife that the United States may have used Hellfire R9X, a warhead-less missile, which is used in finely targeted attacks. The Hellfire R9X first appeared in 2017 when al-Qaeda senior leader Abu al-Khayr al-Masri was killed. What suggests the use of the missile is that pictures showed no signs of explosion. Over time, the missile has earned names like “flying ginsu,” after a famous 1980s television commercial for ostensibly Japanese kitchen knives, and “ninja bomb”.
In his address, Biden pointed out that there was no harm done to the family members of Zawahiri in the precision strike, and no civilians bore any injuries.
Pakistan
Zawahiri’s presence in a guest house in Kabul, reportedly owned by interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani’s close aide, became a subject of intense curiosity, given Sirajuddin’s chief patron — the Pakistan deep state.
Al Qaeda After al-Zawahiri
Not as charismatic as Osama bin Laden (OBL), Al Qaeda (AQ) chief Zawahiri remained in his shadows. After OBL’s killing in a US Navy Seal operation in Pakistan in 2011, few experts believed that Zawahiri could hold the network together. However, since 2011, the AQ network has grown across the world, especially in Syria, Mali, Somalia, Southeast Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, disseminating its puritanical ideology, money and expertise to local militant groups. This happened despite the huge popularity of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria amongst radical Muslim youth. The ISIS had also set up a physical Caliphate — a long-cherished goal of international jihad espoused by the AQ.
Under Zawahiri, the AQ network seems to have changed its strategic direction and its branches currently operate more like independent insurgencies — such as through the Taliban in Afghanistan, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria and Al-Shabab in Somalia. The crucial question is whether the AQ, post-Zawahiri, will lose momentum or whether the collective core leadership that seems to have been quietly working post-OBL could provide a leader as well as offer continuity.
Successor to al- Zawahiri
The most obvious name being discussed to succeed Zawahiri was that of another Egyptian, Saif al-Adel, who was believed to be in charge of external operations. However, given regular reports of his connections “within” Iran, he may not be the “ideal face” to succeed Zawahiri. Some regional leaders, such as from Al Shabab, may be acceptable, given the recent series of “successes” of this branch. The oldest branch, the al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which is the key source of chief ideologues of jihad, may be used to prop up a cleric as the next AQ Amir in order to lower the profile for some time while keeping the propaganda around the “martyrdom” of Zawahiri going.
Saif al-Adel is on the FBI’s list of most-wanted terrorists. The agency mentions on its website that al-Adel was born on April 11, though his birth year is either 1960 or 1963. He has used aliases like Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi, Seif Al Adel, Ibrahim Al-Madani. The FBI has announced a reward of $10 million for any information about him. Saif al-Adel is an Egyptian ex army officer and a founding member of Al Qaeda. He had joined the precursor terror group Maktab al-Khidmat in 1980s.
A second possible successor is Yezid Mebarek, known as Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-Anabi, emir of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb since 2020. An Algerian citizen, Mebarek ran media operations for AQIM, using a 2013 video to call for global attacks against French interests after Paris sent troops to help quash a militant insurgency in Mali.
A third potential successor is Moroccan-born national Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi. He is wanted for questioning by the FBI in connection with his membership in Al-Qaeda. He studied software programming in Germany before moving to Afghanistan where he was selected to manage al Qaeda’s main media wing, said the FBI. The son-in-law of Zawahiri, he is a senior Al Qaeda leader.
Doha Agreement Violated
The Taliban had promised in the 2020 Doha Agreement on the terms of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan that they would not harbour al-Qaida members. Nearly a year after the US military’s chaotic pullout from Afghanistan, al-Zawahri’s killing raises questions about the involvement of Taliban leaders in sheltering a mastermind of the 9/11 terror attacks and one of America’s most-wanted fugitives.
The Taliban and the US are accusing each other of violating the agreement. But the real question is: Was the Taliban involved in providing intel on Zawahiri for some benefit that would show up in the future, or did intra-Taliban rivalry lead to cooperation against the Haqqani Network? There is a third scenario — of the Pakistan deep state having provided the intel to show the Taliban in a bad light and curry favour with the US, especially in order to deal with the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has caused much violence against Pakistan forces.
Since the Haqqani Network has been mediating talks between the TTP and the Pakistan army, the strike has surely cast doubts about the safety of the TTP leaders who visit Kabul for meetings. Given the links between the Haqqanis and the Pakistani deep state, it is unlikely that the TTP would continue talks, which in any case have not prevented attacks on the Pakistani forces. The TTP has already started accusing the Pakistan army of providing a base to the US for the drone strike. Thus, much more violence is expected in the Af-Pak region in the coming weeks and months.
Zawahiri and India
In 2014, the AQ launched the Al Qaeda In Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the outfit’s South Asia branch. The inaugural video carried an old clip of OBL and a message of Zawahiri appointing a relatively unknown Indian radical Asim Umar, who had fled to Pakistan decades ago. In recent times, the group has posted many videos focused on India, especially on Kashmir. Some of these clips have featured Zawahiri. With his elimination, as well as that of Umar and a few “known” Pakistani faces of the AQIS earlier, the propaganda against India is likely to lose momentum for now. However, since the AQIS is an Af-Pak-based group, it may rebuild itself with support from the Pakistan deep state.
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New Delhi had evacuated its envoy to Afghanistan, Rudrendra Tandon, and 175 other officials posted in the Embassy of India in Kabul on August 17, 2021 – just two days after President Ashraf Ghani’s government collapsed in the wake of a swift military campaign by the Taliban. India had also evacuated its officials posted in its consulates in other cities in Afghanistan weeks before the country was taken over by the Taliban.
New Delhi sent a delegation of officials, led by its senior diplomat J P Singh, to Kabul, in early August, to oversee the delivery operations of India’s humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.
New Delhi, however, has been having back-channel contacts with the Taliban over the past few years as it had anticipated that the Sunni Islamist militia could eventually return to the governance structure in Kabul after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, thus giving its mentor Pakistan a strategic edge against India.
India over the past few months also sent food and medicines to Afghanistan as humanitarian assistance, which was distributed through the UN agencies.
