According to an official assessment carried out by the US Defense Department about the arms left behind in Afghanistan, released in August 2021, the total value of the military equipment left behind including aircraft, ground vehicles, small arms, and ammunition is estimated to be around $7 billion. This equipment has now fallen into the hands of the Taliban, who are using it to further their own military goals. The weapons and equipment left behind by the US could also pose a security risk, as they could be used by terrorist groups or other armed actors.
The assessment noted that the US had taken steps to destroy or disable some of the equipment before it was left behind, but that much of it was still in working condition. The assessment also noted that the Taliban’s ability to use this equipment would depend on a number of factors, including their training and maintenance capabilities.
The assessment concluded that the US’s decision to leave behind so much equipment was a “significant miscalculation” that could have “serious consequences” for the region. The assessment also called for a review of the US’s policies on military assistance to ensure that such a mistake does not happen again.
The assessment has been criticized by some who argue that it does not go far enough in assessing the risks posed by the weapons and equipment left behind in Afghanistan. However, the assessment does provide a valuable overview of the situation and it is likely to be used by policymakers as they consider how to address the issue.
Arms in the Black Market
The Taliban in Afghanistan are selling the US arms on the black market. These weapons have been reported turning up in a number of countries, including Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia. They have also been reported being used by terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Haqqani Network.
In Pakistan, for example, there have been reports of Taliban-linked groups selling US-made weapons to militants in the country’s tribal areas. These weapons have been used by militants to carry out attacks against Pakistani security forces and civilians.
In Iran, there have been reports of Taliban-linked groups selling US-made weapons to Iranian proxies in the Middle East. These weapons have been used by Iranian proxies to carry out attacks against US forces and allies in the region.
In Central Asia, there have been reports of Taliban-linked groups selling US-made weapons to militants in the region. These weapons have been used by militants to carry out attacks against government forces and civilians.
The sale of US arms by the Taliban on the black market is a serious concern. These weapons could be used by terrorist groups to carry out attacks against US forces and allies, as well as civilians. The sale of these weapons also undermines the US’s efforts to combat terrorism in the region. The Taliban and other groups in Afghanistan have a well-established network of arms dealers, and it is difficult to track down these weapons once they have been sold.
The going black market rate of US arms left behind in Afghanistan varies depending on the type of weapon system and its condition. However, some general estimates can be made.
For example, a M4 rifle in good condition could sell for between $500 and $1,000 on the black market. An AK-47 rifle in good condition could sell for between $200 and $500. A Humvee in good condition could sell for between $50,000 and $100,000. A Black Hawk helicopter in good condition could sell for between $1 million and $2 million.
High Technology Systems
There is some concern that high-technology systems left behind in Afghanistan may have landed up in China or Russia. China and Russia are both major players in the global arms trade, and they have been known to purchase weapons from black market sources. If they were to acquire high-technology US systems, it would give them a significant advantage in terms of military capabilities.
The US government is also concerned that China and Russia could use their intelligence services to try to acquire high-technology US systems through other means, such as espionage.
Diversion of arms supplied in a conflict zone is not new. In Ukraine too, afms supplied by the USA and European allies have been diverted into the black market and it is difficult to estimate the scale of diversion. Some of the items that are believed to have been diverted include small arms and light weapons (SALW), ammunition, and night vision goggles.
For example, a Kalashnikov rifle in good condition could sell for between $200 and $500 on the black market. A Javelin anti-tank missile could sell for between $50,000 and $100,000. A night vision goggle in good condition could sell for between $1,000 and $2,000.
Establishing Accountability
As of yet, no one has been held accountable in the US for the large amount of weapon systems abandoned in Afghanistan. There have been calls for investigations and accountability, but no formal charges have been filed. The issue is likely to continue to be debated in the US for some time to come.
Some have argued that the US government should be held accountable for the weapons that were left behind, as they were ultimately responsible for the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Others have argued that the Afghan government should be held accountable, as they were responsible for the security of the weapons.
Here are some of the reasons why no one has been held accountable yet:
The US government has not yet released a full report on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, so it is not clear who was responsible for the decision to leave behind the weapons.
There is no clear legal basis for holding anyone accountable for the abandoned weapons. The US government has not been accused of any specific crime, and it is not clear that any laws were broken.
The US government is reluctant to open itself up to legal liability by investigating the abandoned weapons. If the government were to be found liable, it could be forced to pay damages to the Afghan government or other parties.
It is possible that the US government will eventually be held accountable for the abandoned weapons. However, it is also possible that the issue will be swept under the rug. Only time will tell what will happen.
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Weapon systems left behind by US forces in Afghanistan
Aircraft: 78 aircraft procured for the government of Afghanistan, including 60 Black Hawk helicopters, 18 A-29 Super Tucano attack planes, and 10 C-130 transport planes. These aircraft were demilitarized and rendered inoperable before the US military left.
Ground vehicles: Over 40,000 military vehicles, including 12,000 Humvees, 700 mine-resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles, and 200 tanks.
Small arms and light weapons: Over 300,000 weapons, including M4 rifles, M16 rifles, and AK-47 rifles.
Heavy weapons: 26,000 heavy weapons, including 105mm howitzers, 122mm howitzers, and 25mm machine guns.
Munitions: Over 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, including 7.62mm ammunition, 5.56mm ammunition, and 120mm mortar rounds.
Other equipment: Night vision goggles, biometric devices, and communications equipment.
It is important to note that the list above is not exhaustive. There may be other weapon systems that were left behind by US forces in Afghanistan.
